Time Running Out On Corn; Blizzard in S. Dakota

Unfortunately, the scientific forecasts we have received about global warming have been absolutely backwards! The globe is indeed cooling, as even NASA now hints. Instead of hysterical frenzy about carbon dioxide, our resources should have been devoted to storing corn, and grain-based food products.

Only 10% of the crop is in, as of April 28. Normally by now, 35% of the crop is planted.

Purdue (Indiana) says the corn should all be in by about May 1, if we are to expect an optimal crop (apparently Purdue doesn’t consider 24% crop loss much of a problem!) I think it is now after May 1.

The good news: for now, the wheat crop is OK. Soybeans, a planting alternative to corn, are good.

The bad news: Blizzard delivers 4 feet of snow in South Dakota I wonder if the blizzard will move eastward? Why, yes; snowing in Minnesota and Wisconsin, now.

Food gets expensive in cold periods on Earth. Nobody has ever proven the slightest negative impact from carbon dioxide. Al Gore and associates are manufacturing imaginery problems, and ignoring the real ones.

Grain Outlook: Corn Planting Delay Pushes Price Higher

Corn planting progress has been disappointing and is starting to be reflected in an even higher price in the marketplace. The most recent USDA Crop Progress report, released April 28th, showed only 10 percent of the nation’s corn acreage planted compared to the five-year average of 35 percent. Of the biggest corn producing states, Iowa planting was 49 percent behind, Illinois was 30 percent less than normal, and in Minnesota, only 1 percent of the corn had been planted versus the five-year average of 27 percent. While the Eastern Corn Belt appears to be drying out, the Northern Corn Belt remains wet; and more rain is in the forecast.

Time is running out on corn. Although some industry people are showing signs of anxiety, no one seems to be panicking yet. There are two dangers: 1) not enough corn acres will get planted, and 2) corn will be planted too late to produce trend line yield.

In its March 31st Planting Intentions Report, based on a farmer survey, the USDA estimated that 86 million acres of corn would be planted this spring. Traders and industry experts ran the numbers on projected corn demand and came to a consensus agreement that farmers needed to plant at least 89 million acres of corn. Corn price moved up in an attempt to bid more acres into corn. But the weather has not been cooperating.

An analysis conducted this week showed that with projected usage, 89 million acres of corn producing at trend line yield of about 155 bushels per acre would give a barely adequate corn supply. Price would likely remain in the $6 range. If 90 million acres are planted and harvested at trend line yield, corn stocks would build enough to bring corn price down into the $5 range. For both models, below trend line yields resulted in higher corn price. If corn acres planted fall below 89 million acres, even with trend line yield, corn price would move up to a level that would ration the available supply. No attempt was made to analyze the effect of unfavorable weather during the growing season.

The conclusions here in early May are 89 to 90 million acres of corn need to be planted, and soon, to optimize the crop’s yield potential. Then, we will need good weather conditions throughout the growing season to produce trend line yield. With the 2007/08 carryover supply tightening, there is no cushion to fall back on.


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