Predicting Cycle 24 Peak

Four short years ago, NASA was predicting a very strong cycle 24; with peak sunspot counts well above cycle 23.

NASA climate predictions from expensive computer models are far less accurate.

Cycle 23 peaked around 120 sunspots.  A  favored method from actual history of projecting peak sunspot count now yields numbers less than 40% of NASA’s studied predictions; when applied to cycle 24.

The conclusion is that government and science are mutually exclusive; and often a complete waste of time and money when combined.

How long will the new minimum last? Will cycle 24 be part of a new grand minimum? The implications of real solar behavior are ominous indeed; but your government does not care. It is busy planning the taxation of carbon dioxide emission; and pumping carbon dioxide down old mineshafts.

The full story on behavior of cycle 24 is here: That Solar Sinking Feeling 

The 13 month smoothed numbers, forecast values and implication for the magnitude of the cycle peak are as follows:

  • June 2009 had a forecast of 5.5, actual of 2.801, implied peak of 45.83
  • July 2009 had a forecast of 6.7, actual of 3.707, implied peak of 49.79
  • August 2009 had a forecast of 8.1, actual of 5.010, implied peak of 55.67
  • September 2009 had a forecast of 9.7, actual of 6.094, implied peak of 56.55
  • October 2009 had a forecast of 11.5, actual of 6.576, implied peak of 51.46
  • November 2009 had a forecast of 12.6, actual of 7.190, implied peak of 51.36
  • December 2009 had a forecast of 14.6, actual would require data from June.

Solar Cycle 24 now has accumulated 810 spotless days. 820, which would require only 10 more spotless days, would mean that Cycle 24 was one standard deviation above the mean excluding the Dalton and Maunder Grand Minima.


2 Responses

  1. What noone in the science world will talk about is the new standard for counting sunspots vs. the old. Pre-1850s imaging technology would not have been able to capture and thus count many of the sunspots counted in SolarCycle 24 by the spaced based imaging technology in use today. There’s no visible effort to CORRECT new data to old world imaging limitations so the science of comparison isn’t science at all. Most of the sunspots in SolarCycle 24 wouldn’t have been visible in solarcycle 4 which leads me to believe we are way deeper than the Maunder right now. The arctic maximum sea ice extent has rebounded steadily since 2004 by a total of 296,000 square miles and Canada has lost 30% of their wheat and barley agriculture due to cooling and shorter growth seasons. We haven’t hit to 7 year thermal precession lag yet. Real cooling is still a couple of years coming.

  2. Correction 2006: The maximum sea ice extent has steadily rebounded 296,000 square miles since 2006. For perspective only, that’s about 6,040 square miles per month!

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