Selection From Overview – The Chilling Stars

By Henrik Svensmark and Nigel Calder – The Chilling Stars – Overview

(Some construction is going on here – by the Al Gore of HTML – me. Please pardon the dust; I don’t think it will cause global warming).

The Climate is always changing. The first clue that cosmic rays have something to do with it comes in Chapter 1, from the alternating episodes of warmth and cold over the past few thousand years. Most recently, the Little Ice Age, which peaked around 300 years ago, has given way to the present warm interlude.

The Little Ice Age coincided with an unusual state of the Sun, known as the Maunder Minimum. Sunspots were very scarce, a symptom of feeble magnetic activity. A jump in the production rate of radiocarbon atoms and the other long-lived tracers, made by cosmic rays in nuclear reactions in the air, was another indicator. We’re shielded from manyg of the cosmic rays by the Sun’s magnetic field, but when it weakens, more of them can reach the Earth.

Chilling events like the Little Ice Age have occurred nine times since the most recent ice age ended 11,500 years ago, always associated with high counts of radiocarbon and other tracers. Historians and archaeologists testify to the misery caused to our ancestors. Reaching further back in time, into the ice ages, a German scientist found stones dropped onto the ocean floor by armadas of icebergs during a succession ov very cold spells. Again, these coincided with low solar activity.

Among scientists who already agree that the Sun plays a prominent role in climate change, opinions differ about how it exerts its influence. Some want to explain the alternations of warm and chilly periods by changes in solar brightness. For them, the cosmic rays play no direct part in the weather but merely signal whether the Sun is more or less active, magnetically speaking, and therefore more radiant or dimmer. On the other hand, Danish scientists led by your author Svensmark think that a direct climatic role is more important, because cosmic rays affect the world’s cloudiness.

Chapter 1 ends with an outline of the strongest evidence against the Svensmark theory, assembled by a Swiss physicist. About 40,000 years ago the Earth’s magnetic field became very weak. Geophysicists call it the Laschamp Event. As a result, many more cosmic-ray particles entered the atmosphere, and left the atomic tracers of their passage. According to the theory of cosmic rays and clouds, shouldn’t they have caused a severe cooling? But that didn’t happen.

To rebut this well-reasoned argument, Svensmark looked again at the adventures of the cosmic rays, as related in Chapter 2. You don’t notice it, but about twice a second a cosmic-ray particle whizzes through you head and disappears into the ground under your feet. When you climb a mountain, or fly in a jet plane, the rate is much higher.

Cosmic rays seemed like an optional extra, after an Austrian scientist detected them nearly a century ago. They were of great interest to scientists, certainly but perhaps unimportant in the domestic economy of the Universe or the Earth. Only recently have astronomers realised that cosmic rays are an essential ingredient in the witch’s brew from which come stars, planets and the chemicals needed for life. And in ways that the experts have been slow to appreciate, the commic rays arriving here from a distant chorus of exploded stars continue to influence our lives.

(10 more paragraphs coming . . .)

OPEC Wants to Restrict Oil Production

Those sheiks and princes at OPEC want to restrict oil production, in hopes of keeping the price high.

How economically naive they are.

American economic experts ought to be able to wisen the Arabs up quick.

Throttling oil production CANNOT POSSIBLY affect the price of oil.

Only the evil capitalist corruption, American Big Oil, can affect the price of oil.

Arab oil sheiks and princes, our saviours in comparison, should not expect oil prices to remain high just because they throttle production. Our United States Congress has proven that only “AMERICAN BIG OIL” is the cause of high oil prices; government restrictions on oil production cannot possibly affect oil prices.

You have too much energy, anyway. Have a nice winter.

Greenhouse Cooling Widespread

Pardon me; the anecdotes below are actually highly corrupted! Now the greenhouse effect is recharacterized as causing global cooling. If you believe that, I have some photovoltaics for you. How long until the “global warming” disappears completely? The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) blames the greenhouse gases for the cold (via Prison Planet).

” . . . global cooling can just as easily be blamed on CO2 emissions as can global warming” Everything can be blamed on carbon dioxide.

Global Cooling? Unprecedented Ice Storms In Kenya

Greenhouse Hail Effect

Greenhouse Hail Effect

But suspend your rational thought process for a moment – the WWF assures us that CO2 causes global warming and global cooling

Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet
Thursday, September 4, 2008

Evidence that the planet is tip-toeing towards the onset of a new mini ice age continues to present itself following unprecedented ice storms in Kenya as well as Sydney experiencing its coldest August for 60 years. But don’t worry because according to the World Wildlife Fund, global cooling can just as easily be blamed on CO2 emissions as can global warming.

The cold snap arrives on the back of the Sun reaching a milestone not observed in nearly 100 years – the entire month of August passed without a single sunspot being noted.

Lack of solar activity in 2008 has coincided with evidence of a cooling trend across the world.

Earlier this year, China experienced its coldest winter in 100 years while northeast America was hit by record snow levels and Britain suffered its coldest April in decades as late-blooming daffodils were pounded with hail and snow on an almost daily basis. The British summer also left many yearning for global warming, with temperatures in June and July rarely struggling to get over 16 degrees and on one occasion even dropping as low as 9 degrees in the middle of the afternoon.

“Summer heat continues in short supply, continuing a trend that has dominated much of the 21st Century’s opening decade,” reports the Chicago Tribune. “There have been only 162 days 90 degrees or warmer at Midway Airport over the period from 2000 to 2008. That’s by far the fewest 90-degree temperatures in the opening nine years of any decade on record here since 1930.”

——–

According to a report from the World Meteorological Organization last month, the first half of 2008 was the coolest for at least five years, adding that it may actually be the coolest since 2000.

Meanwhile, Arctic ice has expanded by 30 per cent since this time last year as respected scientists predict a new mini ice age within 10 years.

More here (with good links, for real).

Assault on Reason, by Expert Al Gore

After a year of the most abrupt cooling ever observed on Earth; while carbon dioxide has continued to increase, The Assault on Reason by Al Gore becomes increasingly incredible, if that is possible. Magnetic activity on the Sun increasingly emulates the period prior to the Dalton Minimum; we are now observing long periods free of sunspots, and other important magnetic indications (Average Geomagnetic Planetary Index (Ap)) run strongly parallel (Anthony Watts, Sun poised to make history with first spotless month since 1913)

Worth re-reading: “If Al Gore were truly concerned about carbon dioxide, he would be clamoring for nuclear power plants . . . Al Gore, himself, has already accumulated astonishing personal wealth during his campaign against world energy technology and is now a principal in a new corporation being formed to profit from public fear of global warming.”

The Virtues of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

by Dr. Arthur Robinson Human Events January 4, 2008

(article includes 61 comments)

Al Gore’s movie, “An Inconvenient Truth,” includes some very remarkable revelations including:

1. A “computer calculated” temperature prediction curve with predictions beginning in 1938 — when neither Al Gore nor the computer had yet been invented.

2. Photos of South Sea islanders being washed from their islands by rising seas — sea level having risen 3 inches during the past 50 years.

3. Drawings of species driven to extinction by human use of hydrocarbons — including the Wooly Mammoth, which has been gone from the Earth for thousands of years.

4. A little girl’s ice cream cone melting before she can eat it — as a result of the current 0.5 degree centigrade per century increase in temperature.

5. 650,000 years of Earth temperature fluctuations, including 6 ice ages – all caused, according to Al Gore, by carbon dioxide fluctuations of entirely unknown origins.

Al Gore’s other popular offering is his book appropriately entitled The Assault on Reason — a subject for which he obviously has readily demonstrated expertise.

George Washington was at Valley Forge during the coldest period in 1,500 years, with Earth average temperatures dipping as low as 1 degree centigrade below the 3,000-year average. Since then, temperatures have gradually recovered. If the current rate of increase continues, about 2 centuries from now the temperature of the Earth will be back to that of the medieval period 1,000 years ago — when Greenland was green and warmer weather brought increased growing seasons and general rises in comfort and prosperity in many cooler climates.

Meanwhile, in the United States, rainfall is increasing, tornados are becoming less frequent, glaciers have been receding for 200 years — back to their more normal average lengths, and hurricane frequency and severity has been unchanged for the past century.

Standing timber in U.S. forests has, however, increased by 40% since 1950; 2,000-year-old pine trees are growing faster; and animal and plant quantity and diversity are sharply increasing. This is truly alarming! If current trends continue, we will be overrun by squirrels, deer, and foxes and fighting for our lives against aggressively growing orange and apple trees. A dire prediction was even published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences — I am not making this up — warning that poison ivy is also growing faster.

The three most important substances that make life possible are water, oxygen, and carbon dioxide. The primary structural and functional element in all living things is carbon. All carbon in protein, fat, carbohydrate, and the other organic molecules in living things is derived from atmospheric carbon dioxide. Without atmospheric carbon dioxide, life as we know it would not be possible. Plants inhale carbon dioxide and are thereby fertilized. When atmospheric carbon dioxide increases — as it has by about 30% during the past century, plant life and the animal life that thrives upon it are also increased.

The annual increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide attributable to human activities — primarily the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas — is about 1 part in 10,000 of that contained in the oceans and biosphere — a contribution of ultimately negligible consequence. Since, however, this human-released carbon must travel through the atmosphere to reach the ocean and biotic reservoirs, human use, while it continues, has caused a transient rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide from about 0.03% to about 0.04% of atmospheric molecules. The primary environmental result of this rise is plant fertilization. We are moving carbon from below ground into the atmosphere, where it is available to produce more plants and animals — a wonderful and unexpected gift from the industrial revolution.

The Earth’s atmosphere and surface are warmed by solar radiation; the greenhouse effect — primarily caused by atmospheric water vapor; and other less-understood phenomena. Carbon dioxide and methane are also greenhouse gases, but their physical properties render their greenhouse effects very weak. Neither warms the Earth significantly, and no greenhouse warming caused by these two substances has ever been unequivocally observed. The warming and cooling of the Earth is correlated most closely with fluctuations in solar activity and is entirely uncorrelated with human hydrocarbon use.

This has not, however, troubled Al Gore, the United Nations, and their enviro retainers, who are regaling the body politic with unverified computer projections that purport to predict the weather centuries in the future. These computer models cannot predict the weather next week, nor can they even “predict” the weather last year. In order to make the models conform at least somewhat to past temperature trends, their handlers have introduced 6 and even 7 adjustable parameters into their calculations. As Enrico Fermi famously remarked when quoting his friend, the great mathematician and computer pioneer John von Neumann, “with 3 parameters I can fit an elephant and with 4, I can make him wiggle his trunk.”

Why are these people doing this? Why has Al Gore positioned himself to become a historical laughing stock, and why have a few hundred United Nations climate change-funded “scientists” joined them? The reason surely is not global warming. If they truly were alarmed as they say about imminent climatic peril, they would be clamoring for the Penner-Teller solution. These scientists have shown that slight injections of sun-blocking particulates into the upper atmosphere would immediately erase all Earth warming of the past 200 years. Teller estimated the cost to achieve this cooler temperature at about $1 billion. A similar additional amount would probably be required annually to maintain the cooling.

If Al Gore were truly alarmed about hydrocarbon use, he would be clamoring for nuclear power plants. The construction of just 50 nuclear installations similar to that partially completed at Palo Verde near Phoenix would erase most of the U.S. carbon dioxide output – and would also erase most of the U.S. trade deficit at the same time. Yet, while The Wall Street Journal recently counted 381 nuclear power plants in various stages of planning or construction around the world — but none being constructed in the United States, Al Gore and his retainers actually oppose nuclear power.

So, why are they doing this? In the words of Indiana Jones — “fortune and glory, kid, fortune and glory” — paraphrase that “money and power, madam, money and power.” Al Gore, himself, has already accumulated astonishing personal wealth during his campaign against world energy technology and is now a principal in a new corporation being formed to profit from public fear of global warming. Meanwhile, United Nations bureaucrats are mesmerized by the prospect of taxing and rationing world energy supplies — a position of virtually unlimited wealth and power that would give them life-and-death control over both world technology and the human race.

And, why do we prefer that Al Gore and his friends not succeed? One reason is that, in the poorer countries of the world, billions of people are using technology to lift themselves from poverty and to gain some of the technological blessings that Americans now enjoy. These people need inexpensive, relatively low technology energy that can, with current methods, only be practically derived from hydrocarbons. World hydrocarbon rationing would deprive them of this energy, destroy their dreams, and cause them to slip backwards into suffering, poverty, and death.

Simultaneously, Americans can only maintain and extend their own technology and prosperity with inexpensive energy — available now in practical quantities only from hydrocarbon and nuclear sources. Moreover, only people who are prosperous can afford the cost of true environmentalism.

Most people agree that increased quality, quantity, and length of human life and decreased human suffering are worthwhile goals. These goals are best reached by technological advance, and inexpensive energy is the currency of technological progress. The myth of human-caused global warming currently threatens these goals and that technological advance. This is the truth — inconvenient as it may be to the self-centered aspirations of Al Gore and his United Nations friends.

More information and proof can be found here.

Fuel Of Choice

During Colorado’s record-breaking cold of the last few days, I was able to find a few faggots of wood left in the pile, and keep the house warm.

I could have burned natural gas; but the price has been set too high, by Al Gore.

America is progressing back to wood-burning culture, and it’s not even really cold yet.

The snow-leopard’s terrain (Peter Matthiessen’s “The Snow Leopard”), treeless, is about to expand.

Good work, students of the environment.

Totally More Likely Than AGW

That is not water covering Manhattan

That is not water covering Manhattan

At least, not liquid water.

Hurry and fork over your carbon dioxide tax ASAP . . . stop carbon dioxide emissions now. Send in your money to develop wind turbine power, just in time to save the Earth. Our central bureaucrats know the future; they just don’t know the past.

Certain parties (including James Hansen) may soon wish they had not blocked energy infrastructure in the world. On the other hand, they are kooks anyway – wealthy kooks. Destroying your own credibility can have global repercussions, Jim, however much you enjoyed it.

Dearth Of Sunspot Activity To Herald New Ice Age?

Forecasts of a sharp cooling trend are backed by the UK’s Armagh Observatory, which has been observing solar activity for over 200 years.

The observatory notes that solar cycles 21 and 22, which were characterized by being short and intense in their activity, led to the natural global warming observed in the 80’s and 90’s.

“Cycle 23, which hasn’t finished yet, looks like it will be long (at least 12 to 13 years) and cycle 24, which has still to start, looks like it will be exceptionally weak,” writes one observatory scientist.

“Based on the past Armagh measurements, this suggests that over the next two decades, global temperatures may fall by about 2 degrees C — that is, to a level lower than any we have seen in the last 100 years….“Temperatures have already fallen by about 0.5 degrees C over the past 12 months and, if this is only the start of it, it would be a serious concern,” concludes David Watt.

“Summer heat continues in short supply, continuing a trend that has dominated much of the 21st Century’s opening decade,” reports the Chicago Tribune. “There have been only 162 days 90 degrees or warmer at Midway Airport over the period from 2000 to 2008. That’s by far the fewest 90-degree temperatures in the opening nine years of any decade on record here since 1930.”

The reason? Sunspot activity has dwindled. There have only been a handful of days in the past two months where any sunspot activity has been observed and over 400 spotless days have been recorded in the current solar cycle.

“The sun’s surface has been fairly blank for the last couple of years, and that has some worried that it may be entering another Maunder minimum, the sun’s 50-year abstinence from sunspots, which some scientists have linked to the Little Ice Age of the 17th century,” reports one science blog.

Long-time man-made global warming advocates NASA assure us that significant sunspot activity will return in 2012, but a recent a paper on recent solar trends by William Livingston and Matthew Penn of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson, predicts that sunspots will all but vanish after 2015.

Since the sun, and not carbon dioxide, is the principle driver of climate change, a dearth of sunspot activity would herald a repeat of the Maunder Minimum, the name given to the period roughly from 1645 to 1715, when sunspots became exceedingly rare and contributed to the onset of the Little Ice Age during which Europe and North America were hit by bitterly cold winters and the Thames river in London completely froze.

H/T Ice Age Now: Dearth of sunspot activity to herald new ice age?

Al Gore Minimum Extending

Month by month, the Al Gore minimum extends its icy grip on the Solar magnetosphere, choking off our protection from high-energy cosmic rays. Sunspots remain quiet, and ominously so.

We could increase energy production, to save lives, in case the Dalton Minimum, or the Maunder Minimum, is about to repeat. (When has history repeated? Climate is the paragon of historic repetition).

Our scientists surely remember the Dalton Minimum. But too many scientists are funded by government, a government which paradoxically has no concern for history, or any science!

True science is subject to falsification, but no matter how cold it gets, the pseudo-science of Al Gore and James Hansen is ordained, by the virtue of government insistence. Falsification is no hazard, for such lucrative pseudo-science. Facts be damned.

Will Alexander:

“The atmospheric greenhouse effect lies at the heart of climate change science. Its very existence is now being challenged. I would have preferred to discuss my views with my professional colleagues in the climatological and environmental sciences. But they will have none of it.

Where does all this nonsense come from? The public believes it because they have faith in scientists. The whole scientist community, by its silence, must bear responsibility for the incredible damage that these unsubstantiated claims will cause to the prosperity of our country.”

Energy production will be increased, but perhaps far too late to save the lives Al Gore has written off. Scientists are quiet, with notable exceptions, as described. Who bears the responsibility?

H/T: ICECAP

All Scientists Are Skeptics

Yes, it’s true! All real scientists are skeptics. Now is the time, more than ever before, with the oceans cooling, the atmosphere cooling, to question the polemic of Global Warming and human generated carbon dioxide.

“There is a good chance we are headed into another Little Ice Age in the next 20 or 30 years.”

“This will wipe out the grainery crops of the world . . .”

Hat tip: Global Warming Hoax (Bob Carter movie)

Coming Cold

Warming Not in Anchorage (what a great blog name “Warming Not”)

Which is amazing, since the Arctic ice cap is simultaneously, rapidly vanishing, according to a somewhat desperate Al Gore and his even more desperate retainers. (Not vanishing . . . in fact holding up well)

Gloomy summer headed toward infamy (infamy, really? Only WARM can be infamous, according to the United Nations consensus of renowned world-class scientists, common thieves, and ignorant inventors.)

. . .Right now the so-called summer of ’08 is on pace to produce the fewest days ever recorded in which the temperature in Anchorage managed to reach 65 degrees.

That unhappy record was set in 1970, when we only made it to the 65-degree mark, which many Alaskans consider a nice temperature, 16 days out of 365.

This year, however — with the summer more than half over — there have been only seven 65-degree days so far. And that’s with just a month of potential “balmy” days remaining and the forecast looking gloomy. . .

Actual temperatures are insignificant, as is actual sea level, as is actual history. Actual is our enemy; we must only make-believe.

Ignoring the actual is uniformly a serious mistake, and costly.

How long should we ignore the actual, Mr. Al Gore? Ignorance is surely your most famous invention.

Record Lows – 2008

H/T: Icecap

Case For Global Cooling

Jovian Planets, 100 and 300 times Earth\'s MassCan periodic cooling on Earth be explained by planetary alignment?

The Dalton Minimum followed the Maunder Minimum by something like 150 to 200 years. The Maunder Minimum was more severe and lasted longer, about 80 years compared to about 25 years for the length of the Dalton Minimum. It is difficult to choose the exact beginning, zenith, or end of these cool periods on Earth, particularly for the Maunder. We might choose the year 1820 to associate with the nadir of sunspot activity during the Dalton Minimum – slightly more than 180 years ago.

If the Sun’s magnetic cycle is sensitive to tidal forces, or other effects from the orbiting planetary mass, the number 180 may be magic. Scientists suggest, in a recent paper entitled “Does a Spin–Orbit Coupling Between the Sun and the Jovian Planets Govern the Solar Cycle?” (see the abstract here) that the combined effects of Saturn and Jupiter could induce magnetic cycle fluctuations in the Sun with a period of just about exactly 180 years.

As author Ian Wilson explained to Andrew Bolt from post Cooling coming:

It supports the contention that the level of activity on the Sun will significantly diminish sometime in the next decade and remain low for about 20 – 30 years. On each occasion that the Sun has done this in the past the World’s mean temperature has dropped by ~ 1 – 2 C.

Physicist Luboš Motl in this article states

The paper is effectively another peer-reviewed case for global cooling.

It is no small comfort that at least our deepest-thinking (skeptical) scientists are investigating Solar behavior and its impact on Earth’s climate. In the past, Solar magnetic behavior has been closely linked with very pronounced climate changes. Our government funded scientists however are busy figuring out how to pump carbon dioxide down abandoned mine shafts; how embarrassing.

Anthony Watts also blogs on this Global Cooling paper here.