Not Much Time Left To Enjoy Global Warming

Must Read - revised version available now

Must Read - revised version available now

History shows a warm Earth is a pleasant Earth, generally speaking. The real, historical, hob-goblin of life on Earth, is The Chilling Stars. Carbon dioxide is a blessing (and its detractors are idiots).

 

“No Climate Model has predicted a cooling on Earth . . .” Svensmark is modest to a fault. Svensmark himself uniquely predicted it.

Translation from Jyllands-Posten of Denmark is the excellent work of Anthony Watts, WUWT While The Sun Sleeps

HENRIK SVENSMARK, Professor, DTU, Copenhagen

Indeed, global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning. No climate model has predicted a cooling of the Earth, on the contrary. This means that projections of future climate is unpredictable, writes Henrik Svensmark.

The star which keeps us alive, has over the last few years almost no sunspots, which are the usual signs of the sun’s magnetic activity.

Last week, reported the scientific team behind Sohosatellitten (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) that the number of sunspot-free days suggest that solar activity is heading towards its lowest level in about 100 years’. Everything indicates that the Sun is moving into a hibernation-like state, and the obvious question is whether it has any significance for us on Earth.

If you ask the International Panel on Climate Change IPCC, representing the current consensus on climate change, so the answer is a reassuring ‘nothing’. But history and recent research suggests that it is probably completely wrong. Let us take a closer look at why.

Solar activity has always varied. Around the year 1000, we had a period of very high solar activity, which coincided with the medieval warmth. It was a period when frosts in May was an almost unknown phenomenon and of great importance for a good harvest. Vikings settled in Greenland and explored the coast of North America. For example, China’s population doubled over this period. But after about 1300, the earth began to get colder and it was the beginning of the period we now call the Little Ice Age. In this cold period all the Viking settlements in Greenland disappeared. Swedes [were surprised to see Denmark to freeze over in ice], and the Thames in London froze repeatedly. But more serious was the long periods of crop failure, which resulted in a poorly nourished population, because of disease and hunger [population was reduced] by about 30 per cent in Europe.
It is important to note that the Little Ice Age was a global event. It ended in the late 19th century and was followed by an increase in solar activity. Over the past 50 years solar activity has been the highest since the medieval warmth for 1,000 years ago. And now it appears that the sun returns and is heading towards what is called ‘a grand minimum’ as we saw in the Little Ice Age.

The coincidence between solar activity and climate through the ages have tried explained away as coincidence. But it turns out that almost no matter what time studying, not just the last 1000 years, so there is a line. Solar activity has repeatedly over the past 10,000 years has fluctuated between high and low. Actually, the sun over the past 10,000 years spent in a sleep mode, approx. 17 pct of the time, with a cooling of the Earth to follow.

One can wonder that the international climate panel IPCC does not believe that the sun changed activity has no effect on the climate, but the reason is that they only include changes in solar radiation.

Just radiation would be the simplest way by which the sun could change the climate. A bit like turning up and down the brightness of a light bulb.

Satellite measurements of solar radiation has been shown that the variations are too small to cause climate change, but so has closed his eyes for a second much more powerful way the sun is able to affect Earth’s climate. In 1996 we discovered a surprising influence of the sun – its impact on Earth’s cloud cover. High energy accelerated particles of exploded stars, the cosmic radiation, are helping to form clouds.

When the Sun is active its magnetic field shields better against the cosmic rays from outer space before they reach our planet, and by regulating the Earth’s cloud cover the sun can turn up and down the temperature. High solar activity obtained fewer clouds and the earth is getting warmer. Low solar activity inferior shields against cosmic radiation, and it results in increased cloud cover and hence a cooling. As the sun’s magnetism has doubled its strength during the 20th century, this natural mechanism may be responsible for a large part of global warming during this period.

This also explains why most climate scientists are trying to ignore this possibility. It does in fact favor the idea that the 20th century temperature rise is mainly due to human emissions of CO2. If the sun as has influenced a significant part of warming in the 20 century, it means that CO2’s contribution must necessarily be smaller.

Ever since our theory was put forward in 1996, it has been through a very sharp criticism, which is normal in science.

First it was said that a link between clouds and solar activity could not be correct because no physical mechanism was known. But in 2006 after many years of work we managed to conduct experiments at DTU Space, where we demonstrated the existence of a physical mechanism. The cosmic radiation helps to form aerosols, which are the seeds for cloud formation.

Then came the criticism that the mechanism we have found in the laboratory was unable to survive in the real atmosphere and therefore had no practical significance. But the criticism we have just emphatically rejected. It turns out that the sun itself is doing, what we might call natural experiments. Giant solar flares can have the cosmic radiation on earth to dive suddenly over a few days. In the days after the eruption cloud cover falls by about 4 per cent. And the content of liquid water in clouds (droplets) is reduced by almost 7 per cent. Indeed, [you could say] that the clouds on Earth originated in space.

Therefore we have looked at the sun’s magnetic activity with increasing concern, since it began to wane in the mid-1990s.

That the sun could fall asleep in a deep minimum was suggested by [solar scientists] at a meeting in Kiruna in Sweden two years ago. As Nigel Calder and I updated our book “The Chilling Stars” therefore, we wrote a little provocative [passage] “we recommend our friends to enjoy global warming while it lasts.”

Indeed, global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning. Last week, it was argued by Mojib Latif from the University of Kiel at the UN World Climate Conference in Geneva that cooling may continue through the next 10 to 20 years.

His explanation was natural changes in North Atlantic circulation and not in solar activity. But no matter how it is interpreted, the natural variations in climate then penetrates more and more.

One consequence may be that the sun itself will show its importance for climate and thus to test the theories of global warming. No climate model has predicted a cooling of the Earth, on the contrary.

This means that projections of future climate is unpredictable. A forecast [that] says it may be warmer or colder for 50 years, is not very useful, for science is not able to predict solar activity.

So in many ways, we stand at a crossroads. The near future will be extremely interesting and I think it is important to recognize that nature is completely independent of what we humans think about it. Will Greenhouse theory survive a significant cooling of the Earth? Not in its current dominant form. Unfortunately, tomorrow’s climate challenges will be quite different than greenhouse theory’s predictions, and perhaps it becomes again popular to investigate the sun’s impact on climate.

Professor Henrik Svensmark is director of the Center for Sun-Climate Research at DTU Space. His book “The Chilling Stars” has also been published in Danish as “Climate and the Cosmos” (Gads Forlag, DK ISBN 9788712043508)

Danish source:

Mens Solen sover
HENRIK SVENSMARK, professor, DTU, København

Offentliggjort 09.09.09 kl. 03:00

Faktisk er den globale opvarmning standset, og en afkøling er så småt begyndt. Ingen klimamodel har forudsagt en afkøling af Jorden, tværtimod. Det betyder, at prognoser for fremtidens klima er utilregnelige, skriver Henrik Svensmark.

Den stjerne, der holder os i live, har gennem det seneste par år været næsten uden solpletter, som er det normale tegn på Solens magnetisk aktivitet.

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Sun to Earth: We Are Feeling Very Sleepy Here

Declining Sunspot Magnetic Fields?
The excellent, if not so pleasant, story is here: Are Sunspots Disappearing?

Long term trend:  first, weaker sunspots, then fewer sunspots

Long term trend: first, weaker sunspots, then fewer sunspots

The magnetic activity of the Sun is weakening very dramatically, over the last dozen, or two, years, we can see from the chart above, and from other indications. Thus, the Sun abandons us to our own protections against galactic cosmic rays (GCR), the highest energy particles that commonly interact in our atmosphere, unless they are deflected entirely from the inner solar system by the normal magnetic influences of solar activity. But practically, Earth has nothing even faintly approaching the shielding capacity of the sun’s magnetosphere, or heliosphere. We are not just on our own, we are utterly helpless.

One highly compelling theory (“The Chilling Stars“) relates higher rates of reflective low cloud formation with increased incidence of GCR. This relationship has been validated in several ways, but is still not accepted by the scientific community at large, which for the most part is paid by government to do fundamental research in pumping carbon dioxide down abandoned mine shafts instead.

Chilling stars or not, there is an utterly inescapable relationship between long solar sunspot cycles, reduced sunspot counts, and bitter cold periods on Earth called “Little Ice Ages.” Chilling Stars only offers a very reasonable and sensible mechanism linking the two phenomena. However, every true historian knows they are linked in practicality.

What else is linked to reduced sunspot counts, and bitter cold periods on Earth? To start, disease and starvation are linked.

Who attends to the messages from the Sun about its magnetic plans for the future GCR bombardment of Earth’s atmosphere? You should; and keep in mind, your government has other, more lucrative, priorities. Your government will absolutely not under any circumstances attend to messages from the Sun. It (government I mean) is useless.

Latest from Svensmark; Forbush events dry out low clouds

Now here is a big deal; episodic CMEs decrease cosmic ray counts at Earth’s surface – AND:

Decreases in Cosmic Rays Affect Atmospheric Aerosols and Clouds

Close passages of coronal mass ejections from the sun are signaled at the Earth’s surface by Forbush decreases in cosmic ray counts. We find that low clouds contain less liquid water following Forbush decreases, and for the most influential events the liquid water in the oceanic atmosphere can diminish by as much as 7%. Cloud water content as gauged by the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) reaches a minimum ≈7 days after the Forbush minimum in cosmic rays, and so does the fraction of low clouds seen by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and in the International Satellite Cloud Climate Project (ISCCP). Parallel observations by the aerosol robotic network AERONET reveal falls in the relative abundance offine aerosol particles which, in normal circumstances, could have evolved into cloud condensation nuclei. Thus a link between the sun, cosmic rays, aerosols and liquid-water clouds appears to exist on a global scale.

Much more can be found here: Forbush decreases confirm cosmoclimatology, and here A link between the Sun, cosmic rays, aerosols, and liquid-water clouds appears to exist on a global scale…,.

A significant conclusion:

Our results show global scale evidence of conspicuous influences of solar variability on cloudiness and aerosols. Irrespective of the detailed mechanism, the loss of ions from the air during FDs reduces the cloud liquid water content over the oceans. So marked is the response to relatively small variations in the total ionization, [that] we suspect that a large fraction of Earth’s clouds could be controlled by ionization. Future work should estimate how large a volume of the Earth’s atmosphere is involved in the ion process that leads to the changes seen in CCN and its importance for the Earth’s radiation budget. From solar activity to cosmic ray ionization to aerosols and liquid-water clouds, a causal chain appears to operate on a global scale.

Why is Pacific cold; and Baja hot?  The role of low clouds in albedo

Why is Pacific cold; and Baja hot? The role of low clouds in albedo

Clouds, Climate, and Cosmic Rays

All regulated by ‘one’ phenomenon – changing magnetic fields resulting from solar activity. Not carbon dioxide.

Don’t miss any of this 5-part series by Henrik Svensmark, author of The Chilling Stars.

Turned up here first: Gore Lied Five-part video series: Henrik Svensmark discusses his pioneering research on cosmic rays, cloud formation and global warming

Climate Change Before Invention of CO2

Like the Internet – CO2, at least the variety that affects climate, was invented by Al Gore. Unlike the internet, he has yet to show us any of the article, though.

Before the convenient (and much more lucrative than the internet) invention of CO2, climate change visited Earth on virtually innumerable occasions. “One-third of the human race died; terror and anarchy prevailed,” in the most recent pre-CO2 climatic excursion.

Today, we are rapidly learning what causes ice ages, big and little (Chilling Stars, here and here), and also what causes hypsithermals, the namesake of this blog’s URL. (Thank God for hypsithermals; I do).

Hypsithermals are rare in the “geologic perspective” of Earth. Enjoy the warmth while you can; but take great heed that hypsithermal is not forever. They don’t last long, at all.

In northern Europe, the Little Ice Age kicked off with the Great Famine of 1315. Crops failed due to cold temperatures and incessant rain. Desperate and starving, parents ate their children, and people dug up corpses from graves for food. In jails, inmates instantly set upon new prisoners and ate them alive.

The Great Famine was followed by the Black Death, the greatest disaster ever to hit the human race. One-third of the human race died; terror and anarchy prevailed. Human civilization as we know it is only possible in a warm interglacial climate. Short of a catastrophic asteroid impact, the greatest threat to the human race is the onset of another ice age.

The oscillation between ice ages and interglacial periods is the dominant feature of Earth’s climate for the last million years. But the computer models that predict significant global warming from carbon dioxide cannot reproduce these temperature changes. This failure to reproduce the most significant aspect of terrestrial climate reveals an incomplete understanding of the climate system, if not a nearly complete ignorance.

Story here: The Coming Ice Age

Footnote: Why are the dips referred to as minima? I leave it to you, as an exercise.

SERIOUS Climate Change before CO2

SERIOUS Climate Change before CO2

Sun Toys With Earth’s Climate

David Hathaway and James Hansen didn’t predict any cycle 23 spots for today! Hello (a pun in there).

David Hathaway and James Hansen predicted instead global temperatures today would be a about a degree

You saw it here first

You saw it here first

Celsius warmer than they are right now. Thank you, esteemed doctors. Do any of your patients survive?

Now is the time to consider your own personal survival plan, with government, and certifiable “doctors” stomping the life out of the entire energy supply – all of it.

Hmmm; Cycle 23, or Cycle 24?

Hmmm; Cycle 23, or Cycle 24?

Here is the story: Solar Cycle 23 not done yet

Al Gore Minimum Extending

Month by month, the Al Gore minimum extends its icy grip on the Solar magnetosphere, choking off our protection from high-energy cosmic rays. Sunspots remain quiet, and ominously so.

We could increase energy production, to save lives, in case the Dalton Minimum, or the Maunder Minimum, is about to repeat. (When has history repeated? Climate is the paragon of historic repetition).

Our scientists surely remember the Dalton Minimum. But too many scientists are funded by government, a government which paradoxically has no concern for history, or any science!

True science is subject to falsification, but no matter how cold it gets, the pseudo-science of Al Gore and James Hansen is ordained, by the virtue of government insistence. Falsification is no hazard, for such lucrative pseudo-science. Facts be damned.

Will Alexander:

“The atmospheric greenhouse effect lies at the heart of climate change science. Its very existence is now being challenged. I would have preferred to discuss my views with my professional colleagues in the climatological and environmental sciences. But they will have none of it.

Where does all this nonsense come from? The public believes it because they have faith in scientists. The whole scientist community, by its silence, must bear responsibility for the incredible damage that these unsubstantiated claims will cause to the prosperity of our country.”

Energy production will be increased, but perhaps far too late to save the lives Al Gore has written off. Scientists are quiet, with notable exceptions, as described. Who bears the responsibility?

H/T: ICECAP